Indonesia can expect an easier 2014, as the Southeast Asian nation’s economic fundamentals improve across the board. In particular, GDP is expected to grow 5.8 percent, the current account deficit should narrow as the trade balance recovers and inflation should drop to safer levels with no further fuel-price hikes for the year.
The year just ended was rough for Indonesia. After fuel-price hikes, resulting from reductions in the government fuel subsidy, inflation climbed to 8.4 percent at the end of year, nearly double of the 4.3 percent at the end of 2012, and real GDP growth was estimated to have fallen from 6.2 percent to 5.6 percent, according to a Standard Chartered research note.
While most 2013 statistics have not yet been released, the current account deficit is expected to have widened, from $24.4 billion to $32.3 billion. The Indonesian rupiah, as a result of worsening fundamentals and concerns over the risk of capital outflows triggered by the U.S. Fed tapering, weakened to 12,171 rupiahs per dollar at the end of 2013, compared to 9,793 rupiahs at the end of 2012.
But those fundamentals should look up in the coming year. The trade balance, which contributed a great deal to the nation’s current account deficit, will improve as imports slow. The fourth quarter of 2013 was already showing signs of a recovery – the trade surplus rose to $777 million in November from just $24 million in October, according to data from the National Statistics Agency.
In 2012, Indonesia’s trade deficit was just $1.7 billion, while the figure for the first 11 months of 2013 amounted to $5.6 billion.
January 2014 saw the implementation of a law banning mineral exports, which may cause the potential loss of revenue of $5 billion, but since the law excludes coal, which contributes around 13 percent of Indonesia’s total exports, the impact of the ban on the nation’s overall exports should be limited.
As the trade balance gets under control, the overall current account deficit is expected to fall back to $26.9 billion (3.1 percent of nominal GDP) in 2014 from the 3.7 percent in 2013. Before 2011, the nation was still consistently running a current account surplus.
The legal limit of budget deficits in Indonesia is 3 percent, and overshooting the limit in June 2013 prompted the government to cut back fuel subsidies that economists have warned for years to be detrimental to the economy. The resulting hike in fuel prices – 44 percent at one point – caused inflation to almost double from 2012.
But this year, as elections loom, no further fuel-price hikes are expected, and inflation should slow to 5 percent year-on-year by the end of 2014, the Standard Chartered note said, within the central bank’s target range of 3.5 to 5.5 percent for the year.
Recovering fundamentals will have benefits for the rupiah as well, with a stronger second half.
“The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is likely to remain under pressure in early 2014 amid uncertainty over the election results and U.S. Fed tapering,” according to Standard Chartered. “However, we expect the IDR to strengthen in H2, reaching 11,400 by end-2014, once the election results are known and U.S. Fed tapering is in place.”ibtimes.com
PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR), emiten produsen barang konsumsi harian, menyiapkan belanja modal tahun ini sebesar Rp 900 miliar - Rp 1,1 triliun untuk peningkatan kapasitas produksi. Menurut direksi perseroan, anggaran belanja modal di 2014 akan didanai kas internal, pinjaman bank asing, serta pinjaman induk usaha.
"Dana belanja modal kami selalu improve. Tahun lalu Rp 1 triliun. Tahun ini belanja modal sedang kami finalisasi, kisarannya Rp 900 miliar - Rp 1,1 triliun," ujar Sancoyo Antarikso, Direktur Unilever.
Menurut dia, belanja modal tahun ini akan didanai kas internal, pinjaman bank swasta asing, serta pinjaman induk usaha. "Tapi, pendanaan pinjaman bank hanya minoritas," katanya tanpa memerinci lebih lanjut.
Berdasarkan laporan keuangan perseroan, hingga kuartal III 2013 kas Unilever mencapai Rp 520 miliar, naik signifikan dibanding periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya Rp 229 miliar. Pada periode tersebut, Unilever memperoleh pinjaman dari PT Bank Mizuho Indonesia sebesar Rp 250 miliar, JP Morgan Chase Jakarta Rp 150 miliar, dan Standard Chartered Bank Jakarta Rp 100 miliar. "Suku bunga atas pinjaman tersebut single digit," ucapnya.
Sancoyo menambahkan rata-rata nilai belanja modal perseroan dalam lima tahun terakhir cukup besar. Belanja modal Unilever sepanjang 2010-2012 mencapai Rp 4,2 triliun. Alokasi belanja modal ditujukan guna mendukung pertumbuhan kinerja keuangan perseroan.
Meski demikian, dia mengakui, sejak kuartal III 2013 permintaan barang konsumsi harian cukup tertekan oleh sejumlah faktor antara lain kenaikan tarif dasar listrik, pencabutan subsidi bahan bakar minyak (BBM), pelemahan rupiah, serta kenaikan suku bunga kredit. Pertumbuhan penjualan Unilever hingga kuartal III 2013 cenderung melambat menjadi 13% dibanding sebelumnya 16%. "Pertumbuhan penjualan melambat, tapi masih oke," paparnya.
Penambahan kapasitas yang dilakukan sejak tahun lalu juga mendorong Unilever mencatat pendapatan sebesar Rp 23 triliun per kuartal III 2013, tumbuh 13,3% dibanding periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya Rp 20,3 triliun. Peningkatan pendapatan ditopang oleh penjualan di pasar dalam negeri dan ekspor yang masing-masing tumbuh sebesar 10% dan 20%.
Pertumbuhan penjualan ikut menyebabkan beban pokok penjualan perseroan meningkat 13,1% menjadi Rp 11,2 triliun secara tahunan. Laba kotor perseroan tumbuh 14,5% menjadi Rp 11,8 triliun.
Meski demikian, persentase pertumbuhan beban usaha sebesar 17,2% tercatat lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan persentase pertumbuhan pendapatan 13,3%, sehingga margin usaha perseroan tertekan hingga kuartal III 2013. Margin usaha Unilever turun 23 basis poin menjadi 23,86% per kuartal III tahun lalu.
Sementara itu, PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk (TCID), emiten pesaing Unilever di segmen perawatan tubuh, mencatat peningkatan margin usaha sebesar 140 basis poin menjadi 13,8% hingga kuartal III 2013. Peningkatan margin usaha tersebut antara lain terjadi seiring dengan peningkatan beban yang lebih kecil dibanding pertumbuhan pendapatan.
"Meningkatnya beban pokok penjualan sebesar 8,8% menjadi Rp 979,8 miliar yang ditopang oleh kenaikan beban tenaga kerja tidak berdampak pada pertumbuhan laba kotor perseroan sebesar 14,9% menjadi Rp 580,3 miliar. Hal itu pada akhirnya juga menyebabkan kinerja laba usaha, laba bersih, beserta margin perseroan terus tumbuh," kata Takeshi Hibi, Direktur Utama Mandom Indonesia dalam keterangan tertulis.
Hingga September 2013, pendapatan perseroan tercatat sebesar Rp 1,56 triliun atau tumbuh 11,4% dibanding periode yang sama tahun 2012. “Peningkatan penjualan produk-produk perseroan baik di pasar domestik maupun ekspor mendorong kinerja pendapatan sepanjang periode tersebut," kata Hibi.ift.com
